Lane Montgomery

Of course I have an incentive for Obama to win, but I honestly just moved the states into whatever column I thought they would fall in.

My note by state:

Nevada: This will eventually go democratic, but not this election. Look out in '12 or '16 though. This state does have the added consequence of a confusing and heated primary between Obama and Clinton.

Colorado: McCain being from down-river (the Colorado River that is), he has made statements saying that the compact negotiated between states in the region to allocate the water resources from the river should be renegotiated. In the region, that is code for "Colorado is getting too much of the water, McCain wants more for his home state". If you live up-river, voting for McCain would be a detriment to your own financial interests since the President would have a bully pulpit to try and force the issue in one direction or another. I would be interested to see if the President has any power to approve or deny any renegotiation, but I'm not a reporter and I don't have the time to look that up.

New Mexico: Same story as Nevada. Demographics are pushing this toward the democrats, eventually, but probably not this election.

Michigan: My home state. In this state, I think voter registration and economics will swing it blue.

Ohio: My neighbor, on the other hand, I think is being effected more by fear than their own pocket book. The republicans are making a big push here as well, since it was so instrumental to electing Bush in '04.

Virginia: With an increasingly moderating white population, and a large black population, this state is poised to turn blue. Of all my picks, this is the riskiest, but again, demographics and strong voter registration efforts are going to pull off an upset here.

New Hampshire: This is a notoriously libertarian state. The republican party has been able to spin that point of view into a vote for them. Having a libertarian streak myself, I wish it would turn blue, but there are just too many people who have been brand-washed with the idea that democrats are socialists. Perhaps if the Obama campaign starts hitting here with ads on what exactly more republicans will mean for our rights, then there is hope. In this state, hitting the economic note isn't going to be enough to do it.

But, and this is an important "but", if any of the states I designated as blue switch to red, then McCain wins.

Time to make more phone calls and knock on more doors!